The Engine
Evidentiary Sufficiency Framework
ESF is the analytical engine at the center of Salty Consulting. It structures and disciplines certain investigations. It is not the commercial deliverable — the expertise required to construct a case-specific recipe and operate it against a real problem is.
1.0Foundation
This framework is founded on the principle that every high-stakes decision or conclusion must be supported by evidence sufficient to justify the conclusion reached.
While individual high-stakes questions differ in subject matter, context, complexity, and governing requirements, they share a common obligation: the decision or conclusion reached must be demonstrably supported by objective evidence.
Accordingly, this framework treats evidence sufficiency as an independent discipline applicable across high-stakes decisions and conclusions. The principles and evaluation methods described here provide a consistent basis for assessing whether a decision or conclusion can be objectively supported and defended through the available evidence.
The Framework does not determine the correct decision or conclusion, prescribe specific evidence artifacts, or replace professional judgment. Instead, it evaluates whether the submitted objective evidence is collectively sufficient to establish the evidentiary objectives required to support and defend the decision or conclusion being evaluated.
1.1Purpose
The purpose of this framework is not to replace existing procedures, prescribe question-specific evidence, or define question-specific requirements. Instead, it establishes a common standard for evaluating whether high-stakes decisions and conclusions are supported by sufficient objective evidence.
It defines the foundational principles for establishing evidentiary burdens and evaluating whether submitted evidence is sufficient to objectively justify and defend high-stakes decisions and conclusions.
1.2Foundational Principles
The Evidentiary Sufficiency Framework is based on the following principles:
- Every high-stakes decision or conclusion carries its own burden of evidence. Each decision or conclusion must be supported by objective evidence sufficient to justify the conclusion being reached.
- Evidence must be objective and verifiable. Conclusions shall be based on documented facts, data, observations, or other verifiable information rather than assumption, opinion, or unsupported judgment.
- Evidence sufficiency is determined by the evidentiary burden of the decision or conclusion being evaluated. The quantity and type of evidence required are proportional to the significance, complexity, and risk associated with that decision or conclusion.
- The Framework establishes evidentiary objectives rather than prescribing specific evidence artifacts. Any combination of objective evidence may satisfy an evidentiary burden provided the submitted evidence collectively establishes the required objective.
- Evidence may be cumulative. Multiple independent pieces of evidence may collectively provide sufficient support where no single piece of evidence is independently conclusive.
- Evidence may be inherited but not assumed. Information established within preceding records or analyses may contribute to subsequent decisions or conclusions; however, each evaluation remains responsible for demonstrating that sufficient evidence exists to support its own conclusions.
- Evidence must withstand independent review. A decision or conclusion should be supported by evidence sufficient for a knowledgeable and impartial reviewer to understand, evaluate, and defend the conclusion reached.
- Decisions and conclusions shall be supported by objective evidence. The absence of contradictory evidence alone is insufficient to justify a decision or conclusion.
1.3Scope
This framework applies to high-stakes decisions and conclusions whose justification depends upon the sufficiency of available evidence.
Examples include regulatory, safety, compliance, investigative, operational, scientific, or policy decisions in which a conclusion must be supported and defended through evidence.
1.4Definitions
For the purposes of this framework, the following definitions apply:
Decision: A documented conclusion, approval, disposition, or determination requiring evidentiary support.
Objective Evidence: Documented information, observations, data, records, or other verifiable information that demonstrates whether specified requirements have been satisfied.
Evidence: Any information used to support, refute, or substantiate a decision or conclusion. Evidence may be generated within the current evaluation or appropriately referenced from preceding records, analyses, or other relevant sources.
Evidentiary Sufficiency: The degree to which the available objective evidence adequately supports and justifies a decision or conclusion.
Evidence Strength: The relative reliability, relevance, and evidentiary value of an individual piece of evidence in relation to an evidentiary objective.
Inherited Evidence: Objective evidence established within a preceding record, analysis, or evaluation that is appropriately referenced and remains applicable to the decision or conclusion under evaluation.
Risk: The combination of the probability of an incorrect decision or conclusion and the potential impact of that decision or conclusion.
Sufficiency Assessment: The structured evaluation of available evidence to determine whether the evidentiary burden for a decision or conclusion has been met.
2.0Evidentiary Sufficiency Model Overview
The Evidentiary Sufficiency Model evaluates whether a high-stakes decision or conclusion is adequately supported by objective evidence. The model treats each decision or conclusion as possessing an evidentiary burden that must be satisfied before it can be objectively justified.
Evidence sufficiency is not evaluated as a simple count of attachments, references, completed fields, or prescribed documents. Instead, sufficiency is determined by whether the submitted evidence collectively satisfies the evidentiary burden associated with the decision or conclusion being evaluated.
Each decision or conclusion is evaluated through four fundamental concepts:
Evidentiary Objective – The fact, condition, or conclusion that must be established before the decision or conclusion can be objectively supported.
Evidentiary Burden – The level of objective support required before the evidentiary objective can reasonably be considered established.
Evidence Composition – The objective evidence presented in support of the decision or conclusion. The Framework does not prescribe specific evidence artifacts. Any combination of objective evidence may satisfy the evidentiary burden, provided the submitted evidence collectively establishes the required objective and remains consistent with applicable requirements, governing procedures, and the circumstances of the decision or conclusion.
Evidence Evaluation – The structured assessment of whether the submitted evidence is collectively sufficient to satisfy the evidentiary burden and objectively support the decision or conclusion.
The evidentiary objectives applicable to a decision or conclusion are defined by the corresponding evidence recipe. Each recipe question establishes an objective that must be supported before the decision or conclusion can be considered adequately justified. The objective evidence submitted in response to each question is evaluated collectively to determine whether the evidentiary burden for the decision or conclusion has been satisfied.
Not all evidentiary objectives possess the same burden of proof. Certain objectives originate from mandatory requirements, governing procedures, or applicable standards and therefore require a minimum level of evidentiary support that cannot be satisfied through stronger evidence supporting unrelated objectives. Other objectives possess greater flexibility, allowing the evidentiary burden to vary according to the complexity of the decision or conclusion, the associated risk, and the available objective evidence.
The purpose of the model is to determine whether the submitted objective evidence is collectively sufficient to satisfy the evidentiary burden associated with each required objective and thereby objectively justify and defend the decision or conclusion.
2.1Core Model Concept
A decision or conclusion is objectively supported when the submitted evidence satisfies the evidentiary burden associated with each required objective. The evidentiary burden is not uniform. Some decisions or conclusions require limited objective support, while others require more extensive evidence due to increased complexity, uncertainty, applicable requirements, or risk.
The model evaluates whether the submitted evidence is collectively sufficient to establish each required objective. Examples:
- A low-risk administrative correction may require limited evidence.
- A deviation closure may require evidence that the event was understood, impact was assessed, and the chosen disposition was justified.
- A CAPA closure may require evidence that the root cause was addressed, actions were completed, and effectiveness was demonstrated.
- A CAPA extension may require evidence that delay is justified, risk remains controlled, and the revised completion plan is credible.
The required evidentiary burden changes with the decision or conclusion. The method used to evaluate whether that burden has been satisfied does not.
2.2Evaluation Characteristics
The Evidentiary Sufficiency Framework evaluates evidence according to the characteristics of the evidentiary objectives established by the applicable evidence recipe. Not all evidentiary objectives possess the same evidentiary burden or behave identically during evaluation. Certain objectives represent mandatory requirements that must be independently established, while others permit greater flexibility in the amount and combination of evidence required to satisfy the evidentiary burden.
2.2.1Fixed Evidentiary Objectives
Certain evidentiary objectives originate from mandatory requirements, governing procedures, or applicable standards. These objectives possess minimum evidentiary burdens that must be satisfied independently and cannot be compensated for by stronger evidence supporting unrelated objectives. Failure to establish a fixed evidentiary objective results in an incomplete evidentiary foundation regardless of the overall strength of the remaining evidence.
2.2.2Variable Evidentiary Objectives
Other evidentiary objectives provide flexibility within the evaluation model. The evidentiary burden associated with these objectives may vary according to the complexity of the decision or conclusion, the available objective evidence, applicable requirements, and the associated risk.
Where appropriate, stronger evidence supporting one variable evidentiary objective may compensate for weaker evidence supporting another variable evidentiary objective, provided all fixed evidentiary objectives have been satisfactorily established.
2.2.3Evidentiary Sufficiency
A decision or conclusion is considered adequately supported only when all fixed evidentiary objectives have been established and the submitted objective evidence is collectively sufficient to satisfy the evidentiary burden associated with the decision or conclusion.
The evidentiary burden varies according to the nature of the decision or conclusion, applicable requirements, and the associated level of risk.
2.3Evidence Recipe
An evidence recipe is not a list of required documents. It is a structured set of questions that must be answered before a decision or conclusion can be objectively justified. The objective evidence supporting those answers is evaluated collectively to determine whether the evidentiary burden of the decision or conclusion has been satisfied.
The evidentiary objectives associated with a decision or conclusion are determined by its evidence recipe. The recipe establishes the evidentiary expectations applicable to a specific decision or conclusion by defining the evidentiary objectives that must be established, identifying mandatory minimum requirements, and establishing the evidentiary threshold necessary to support the decision or conclusion.
While all decisions and conclusions are evaluated using the same Evidentiary Sufficiency Model, the evidence recipe varies according to the nature of the decision or conclusion, applicable requirements, procedural expectations, and associated risk.
The evidence recipe therefore serves as the blueprint for the decision or conclusion. Rather than prescribing specific documents, it defines the evidentiary objectives that must be established and the evidentiary burden necessary to justify the conclusion. The evidence provided in response to each question is evaluated collectively to determine whether the required evidentiary objectives have been established.
Evidence recipes are intended to promote consistency across similar decisions and conclusions while maintaining the flexibility necessary to account for differing circumstances, contexts, and levels of risk.
2.4Evidence Evaluation
The Evidentiary Sufficiency Framework does not determine the correctness of a decision or conclusion. Rather, it evaluates whether the submitted objective evidence is sufficient to satisfy the evidentiary burden and support the decision or conclusion that has been made.
Evidence must be evaluated collectively against the evidentiary objectives defined by the applicable evidence recipe. The objective of the evaluation is not to determine whether additional evidence exists, but whether the submitted evidence is sufficient to establish the required evidentiary objectives and satisfy the evidentiary burden associated with the decision or conclusion.
The evaluation considers the strength, relevance, and collective sufficiency of the submitted evidence in establishing each required evidentiary objective. Where the evidentiary burden has been satisfied, the decision or conclusion may be considered objectively supportable. Where significant evidentiary deficiencies remain, the rationale supporting the decision or conclusion may not be adequately defended.
ESF · VERSION 1.0 · LOCKED · DOC ESF-001